The Dodgers' Big Bet on Edwin Díaz: A Closer Look at the Risks and Rewards
The Los Angeles Dodgers are making a bold move, spending a hefty $23 million annually on a closer, Edwin Díaz. While they have the financial means, this decision comes with potential pitfalls. Díaz, despite his talent, is coming off a less-than-stellar season, raising concerns about his ability to justify the contract. With age and a history of decline among top relievers, the Dodgers must carefully consider the risks.
Díaz's recent performance with the New York Mets was good but not exceptional, marked by a 3.0 bWAR/2.0 fWAR season. His underlying metrics showed a downward trend, including a slower fastball, poorer batted-ball data, and a career-low strikeout rate. These factors suggest a potential decline, which could make the deal a financial burden for the Dodgers.
However, the Dodgers have a history of investing in their bullpen, despite mixed results. Past attempts to strengthen their relief corps have had varying degrees of success, with some relievers turning out to be reclamation projects or starters-turned-relievers. The team's recent signing of Tanner Scott and re-signing of Kirby Yates and Blake Treinen highlight the challenges of finding reliable closers.
If Díaz excels, he could transform the Dodgers' bullpen, allowing them to utilize starters like Sasaki and Wrobleski in higher-leverage situations. This could potentially boost their regular-season performance and make them a stronger playoff contender. However, the risk remains, as Díaz's recent decline and the team's history of costly signings cannot be ignored.
In the meantime, Robert Suarez, a highly-rated free-agent reliever, remains an option. While he may not be as high-profile as Díaz, Suarez had a strong year, cutting his walk rate while maintaining an impressive velocity. Teams like the Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, and Chicago Cubs could benefit from his services, indicating that the market for relief help is still active.
The Dodgers' decision to sign Díaz is a strategic move, but it comes with inherent risks. The team must carefully navigate these challenges to ensure a successful outcome.
