The Economic Lifeline: Why Cyril Ramaphosa's ANC Presidency Endures
By Thebe Mabanga
As the African National Congress (ANC) convenes its National General Council (NGC) this week, the party finds itself in a peculiar predicament. Despite internal challenges and a tumultuous political landscape, the former ruling party can attribute its survival, at least for the time being, to the robust performance of the South African economy.
The economy's resilience has been a lifeline for the ANC, particularly under the leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa. However, the question remains whether this economic salvation will be enough to secure his position indefinitely.
The Economic Upturn
Since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in July 2024, South Africa's economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Despite low GDP growth, the economy has shown a positive trajectory, with the latest data indicating a 0.5% growth in the third quarter of 2025. This is a significant improvement from previous quarters.
Inflation has reached its lowest point in years, and the government has set a new target of 3%, a significant achievement. Interest rates, though rising slowly, are still on a downward trend, and the mid-term budget policy statement revealed a stable fiscal position with a surplus over the medium term.
The economy's performance has been further bolstered by the steady creation of jobs, with 128,000 added in the third quarter. This is a positive sign, but the unemployment rate remains alarmingly high, above 30%.
The Role of Key State-Owned Enterprises
The performance of Eskom, Transnet, and the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) has been instrumental in addressing critical sectors like electricity, logistics, and passenger rail. These state-owned enterprises have played a vital role in supporting middle- and low-income earners, who are increasingly reliant on these services for their daily commutes and access to factory jobs and service-sector roles.
Overcoming Challenges
The GNU has faced several challenges, including a failed attempt to increase VAT, but it has emerged victorious. The country's first ratings upgrade in 16 years and the withstand of US President Donald Trump's tariffs demonstrate the government's resilience. The financial markets have welcomed these developments, and the mood among the populace is one of cautious optimism.
Cyril Ramaphosa's Unwavering Leadership
President Ramaphosa's position as the ANC's leader is secure for the foreseeable future. He is expected to remain in office until the party's electoral conference in December 2027 and possibly beyond. His popularity among voters, not just ANC members, makes him a strong candidate for the presidency.
However, there are whispers of a desire for change within the party. Some suggest that Ramaphosa's tenure might be coming to an end, but these speculations are met with resistance. The reports of Ramaphosa's intention to resign over the 'stuffed sofa' scandal, though never confirmed, suggest a complex internal dynamic.
The Risk of Economic Downturn
Economist Duma Gqubule warns that the economic situation can change rapidly. The falling GDP per capita over the past 18 years is a cause for concern. If the GNU parties face a significant unemployment crisis, they may opt to dissolve the coalition, leading to a potential economic downturn.
The mood can sour quickly, as seen during the Russia-Ukraine war, which caused a spike in oil and grain prices. The ANC must carefully consider how long it can sustain Ramaphosa's leadership without facing a potential economic backlash.
Conclusion
For now, the ANC and Cyril Ramaphosa can bask in the glow of economic management. However, the party must remain vigilant, as the economic landscape can shift rapidly. The leadership's ability to navigate these challenges will determine the ANC's future in power, and the country's economic stability.
